Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
